Coming soon · in build · screens are the design target, figures illustrative
Commodities Intelligence/Enterprise module

Governments buy, sell, stockpile, and gatekeep more commodities than any trader.
Their moves are public. Read them in one place.

Reserve releases and purchases, national tenders, stockpile moves, export bans, quotas, tariffs, levies, and subsidies from every government on a commodity, keyed to the commodity and the flow they act on, across 16 markets, so you can see who is buying and selling, what is gatekept, and what followed last time.

For commodity traders and trading houses, physical merchants, agricultural and energy investors, procurement teams at manufacturers, and the state agencies that buy on the other side.
Who is buying and sellingStrategic reserve moves, national grain and fuel tenders, and state stockpile purchases and releases, by commodity, jurisdiction, volume, and date.
What is gatekeptExport bans, quotas, levies, tariffs, carbon border charges, and licence regimes by commodity and jurisdiction, dated, with the flow each acts on.
What followed last timeThe same action type in the record before: what public tenders, procurement notices, and counter-measures came after, with the lag and the n.
16
Markets read
6
Commodity classes
4
Action types
7
Evidence layers
Screens below are the design target for the module. Figures are illustrative until the module ships.
purchasereleaseban or quotatariff or subsidy
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01Who is buying and selling

The state ledger. Every government, one commodity.

Reserve purchases and releases, national tenders, stockpile moves, and open-market sales by the agencies that make them, with the volume where it was published and withheld where it was not, across 16 markets.

State ledger · grains, energy, metals, fertilizer · 12 months
keyed to agency, tender number, and commodity lexicon
JurisdictionState actorActionCommodity · flowVolumeDate
EGNational grain agencyPurchase tenderWheat · import480 kt2 Sep 2026
SAGrains organizationPurchase tenderWheat · import655 kt28 Aug 2026
USStrategic petroleum reservePurchaseCrude · reserve3.0M bbl14 Aug 2026
JPEnergy reserve corporationStrategic buffer tenderLNG · reservevolume withheld7 Aug 2026
INFood corporationOpen-market saleRice · domestic release2.4 Mt22 Jul 2026
CNState reserve bureauPurchaseCopper cathode · reservenot publishedJul 2026
INFertilizer ministryLong-term contractPotash · import1.2 Mt · 12 moJun 2026
KRPublic procurement serviceStockpile purchaseAluminum · reservevolume withheldMay 2026
volumes in the unit of the notice · nothing converted to dollars · withheld rows stay on the ledger
02What is gatekept

Borders, dated, with the flow they act on.

Export bans, quotas, levies, tariffs, carbon border charges, and licence regimes by commodity and jurisdiction. A ban and its lifting are kept as a pair with the days in force, because the pair is the precedent.

What is gatekept · by commodity and jurisdiction

controls dated · the flow each acts on · in force unless marked lifted
EU
Carbon border charge, definitive phaseacts on: steel, aluminum, fertilizer, cement · imports
1 Jan 2026
US
Steel and aluminum tariff raised to 50%acts on: steel, aluminum · imports
4 Jun 2025
IN
Non-basmati white rice export ban, liftedacted on: rice · exports · 14 months in force
28 Sep 2024
IN
Non-basmati white rice export banacted on: rice · exports
20 Jul 2023
EU
Carbon border charge, transitional reportingacts on: steel, aluminum, fertilizer, cement, hydrogen, electricity
1 Oct 2023
ID
Palm oil export ban, lifted after 25 daysacted on: palm oil · exports
23 May 2022
ID
Palm oil export banacted on: palm oil · exports
28 Apr 2022
Bans that were later lifted stay in the record as a pair, with the days in force. That pair is the precedent the next chapter reads.
03What followed last time

Precedent is a set of records with an n.

For the action in front of you, the module finds the same action type in the record and shows what public tenders, notices, and counter-measures came after, with the lag and the count. It never states what a price will do.

What followed last time · rice export ban by a top exporter

precedent set · same action type in the record · n=3 episodes · lags are medians
Action
Export ban announced
Top-three exporter closes a grade or the whole flow.
day 0
Followed by
National agencies issue purchase tenders
7 importing governments issued tenders inside the window in the last episode.
+11 days · median · n=3
Followed by
Counter-measures elsewhere
Export quotas or minimum export prices in 2 other exporting jurisdictions.
+34 days · median · n=3
Followed by
Ban lifted or narrowed
Two of three episodes ended inside 14 months; one narrowed to a grade after 4.
+9 to 14 months · n=3
Counts, lags, and n. The module does not say what a price did or will do.

Energy price to public procurement · in the record

notice volume in energy-exposed sectors, 90 days after a 20% move · 6 episodes
Crude, +20% in 30 daysn=4 episodes
+18% notices · IQR +9 to +27
Crude, -20% in 30 daysn=2
+3% · IQR -4 to +8
Gas, +20% · Europen=3
+31% · IQR +12 to +44
Fertilizer, +20%n=2
+12% · IQR +5 to +19
Read as what public procurement did after the same move before. A small n is shown as a small n.
05Workbench

Objects left. Links center. Evidence right.

Select a commodity and the picture redraws as its state ledger across jurisdictions: who bought, who sold, who closed a border, who opened a tender, and the flow each action touched. The dossier serves the actions dated, the tenders open now, and the precedent for the action you are looking at, with n.

app.svatantra.ai / commodities / workbench
Svatantra
Ent
Commodities6 classes
Wheat
Rice
Crude
LNG
Urea
Copper
Palm oil
Jurisdictions16
India
Egypt
United States
European Union
China
Indonesia
State actors38
National grain agency · EG
Strategic petroleum reserve · US
State reserve bureau · CN
Tenders14 open
Wheat · SA · closes 19 Sep
Controls52 in force
Carbon border charge · EU
Steel tariff 50% · US
Wheat · state ledger
lexicon keyed
JurisdictionState actorActionCommodity · flowVolumeDate
EGNational grain agencyPurchase tenderWheat · import480 kt2 Sep 2026
SAGrains organizationPurchase tenderWheat · import655 kt28 Aug 2026
USStrategic petroleum reservePurchaseCrude · reserve3.0M bbl14 Aug 2026
JPEnergy reserve corporationStrategic buffer tenderLNG · reservevolume withheld7 Aug 2026
INFood corporationOpen-market saleRice · domestic release2.4 Mt22 Jul 2026
CNState reserve bureauPurchaseCopper cathode · reservenot publishedJul 2026
INFertilizer ministryLong-term contractPotash · import1.2 Mt · 12 moJun 2026
KRPublic procurement serviceStockpile purchaseAluminum · reservevolume withheldMay 2026
volumes in the unit of the notice
Wheat
commodity · lexicon v1 · 16 markets · import and export flows

Who is buying

90 days · tenders and purchases
National tenders6 · 2.9 Mt
LargestSA · 655 kt · 28 Aug
Open now2 · closes 19 Sep

What is gatekept

in force
Export quotaRU · annual
Import tariffTR · variable
LevyAR · export

What followed last time

precedent · export quota by a top exporter
Importer tenders inside 30 d5 of 7 episodes
Median lag+9 days · n=7
basis: agency to tender (attributed) / control to flow (keyed)
lexicon v1 · tender index 2026-09 · control index 2026-09
volumes never converted · precedents carry n
06Board and canvas

Build the case by dragging. Every card fills itself from the record.

Drop a commodity, a state agency, a control, or a tender onto the board. Ties carry the volume, the basis, and the n. A precedent tie carries a lag and a count, never a probability; the board never states what a price will do.

app.svatantra.ai / commodities / board
Svatantra
Ent
Export memoTender calendar (.ics)Flow mapJurisdiction lensPrecedent lensAsk the boardas of: 12 Sep 2026 · 16 markets
attributedkeyeddated
Live: drag the cards
commodity
Wheat
Tenders, 90 d6 · 2.9 Mt
Controls in force3
state actor
National grain agency · EG
Tender480 kt · 2 Sep
Tenders, 12 mo14
control
Export quota · RU
Acts onwheat · exports
In forceannual · Feb to Jun
precedent
Export quota by top exporter
Episodesn=7
Importer tenders inside 30 d5 of 7
suggested
+ 3 links
2 agencies · 1 open tender
KeepDismiss
Served rows only. Volumes stay in the unit of the notice. Precedent ties carry a lag and an n, never a probability. No price appears on the board.
08Evidence

Seven layers on every figure.

Nothing on a ledger, a board, or a memo is computed on the fly from a model. It is served from the record, with its basis and its n. The standard is the same on the first day the module ships.

1Source attribution
2Statistical transparency
3Methodology disclosure
4Outcome logging
5Confidence framework
6Dissenting evidence
7Audit trail

Bring a commodity. Leave with every government on it.

The module is in build. Design partners get the first seats, a monthly call with the founder, and a say in what the workbench serves first. Bring your own commodities and markets to the walkthrough.